Israel bases its negotiation tactics on brute force, on a massive publicity campaign – using even people like Elie Wiesel – that conveys the message that “you must accept our solution to the problem because we are stronger.” This is not only a savage and uncivilized form of conducting a negotiation, but it is also untrue. This series of articles shows Israel is extremely vulnerable, even more than the Palestinian Authority. The information appearing here is not secret and yet it is enough to layout the base of an acceptable military plan for conquering Israel without a hi-tech army. Most army officers – given the tools – can transform this into a feasible plan. Israel is blowing hot air, and I’m legally commenting on this for the sake of a just political solution of the conflict, which would create a reality in which all denizens would live in Freedom, Equality and Peace.
Roy Tov – is a refugee recognized under the 1951 Geneva Convention. Due to a recent attack by Israel, he was left with permanent damage in his throat. Israel attempted also to entrap him in several ways, even by using a prominent American politician. He is seeking resettlement under the 1967 Geneva Protocol or to be gracefully recognized by other country under the 1951 Convention. In any case that must be in a country with no diplomatic relations with Israel.
Operation Enduring Freedom was the strange name used for the American attack on Afghanistan; it began on October 7, 2001 and is still going on in the second half of 2010, making it the longest war in American history. The attack began with a dramatic and massive airstrike using the V-shaped Lockheed F-117 Nighthawk, an American stealth attack aircraft.
I have extensively commented on the abusive language used by Jews; it has deeply influenced the American culture. Following the attack, the Hebrew media made fun of Afghanis. The idea of freedom warriors walking through harsh mountainous terrain wearing old sandals while fighting one of the most sophisticated weapons on earth was presented as hilarious. A decade later Americans are tired and seeking for a honorable way to retreat. Old sandals have won the most sophisticated technology.
Technology has little to do with winning a war. Airstrikes technology may look as awesome fireworks, especially to a public who grew up on propagandistic Hollywood’s movies, but at the end of the day, a soldier must stick his flag on the opponent’s headquarters in order for a war to be won. A Lockheed F-117 Nighthawk can’t do that. Even a Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II can’t do that.
During the last week of July 2010, there was an important encounter between King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Syrian President Bashar Assad in Beirut. It was an historic meeting for several reasons, emphasizing the importance of another recent event when the Iranian president visited Damascus in March 2010 and met with Assad and Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General.
This is a lot of unusual diplomatic activity. Syrian relations with the Arab world since the 1963 Baathist seizure of power in Damascus is complex. Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar Assad have ruled it since 1970, creating another level of complexity since they belong to the Shia related Alawis, and not to the majority Sunni population. A Shia-Baath government is unique in the Arab world. Yet, Syria has formidable military and intelligence capabilities, and has become one of the pillars of the Arab world. Its complex social and religious reality places it in an ideal position to be considered as an acceptable leader in this area, and that may be the reason of the recent diplomatic rush.
The Hebrew media usually emphasizes the segmentation of the Arab world. Israel, Europe and the USA worked hard to “Divide and Rule” this part of the world in the best of the imperialistic tradition. This strategy did work for a long time because all the states in the area were new and in a process of organization. Traditionally, this part of the world – and most of Asia – was never organized in the western concept of states. The West got stuck in 1984. The failure of modern states to deliver their promises of human rights and prosperity show traditional ways are better than popularly perceived, but that’s the topic for a different article. “Divide and Rule” doesn’t work anymore in the Middle East; we are witnessing a slow but constant consolidation of a wide coalition.
Iran supports the Hezbollah. It is systematically constructing its civil and military infrastructure in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah won an important battle against Israel in 2006 – known in Hebrew as the Second Lebanese War – and now it is even stronger. Fifty thousand missiles of all kinds are aimed at Israel from the Hezbollah controlled areas; most of these missiles have been provided by Syria. Despite this overwhelming strength, the IDF looks at the situation as a tie-up, since the Hezbollah lacks effective anti-aircraft missiles. Thus, its missile launching installations can be easily targeted.
As of now, Israel talks about blocking “Tie-Up Breaking” weapons – namely, effective anti-aircraft defenses. One of the blocking techniques is putting indirect economic and political pressure on Syria. Yet, the last appears to successfully being creating an important coalition. Iran and Syria will have an important role in the creation of the new Iraqi government. After the American retreat from Iraq, Iran would have a direct ground path to Southern Lebanon and Israel. This new reality may create a secure enough environment to pass the “Tie-Up Breaking” weapons to their final destination. A quiet and surprising pact with Saudi Arabia may be the last step in the consolidation of a wide coalition against Western colonialism.
How could all this evolve? If such a coalition is successfully constructed, the scenario outlined in the Defeating Israel articles may become true. Mystified Israeli generals will look at their high-tech screens and see their defeat. Surprised pilots will look through their helmet-mounted display systems at their crush. And then, at their last moment they’ll remember another truth: you can’t win a war if the local population doesn’t support you. Racist Israel would learn the price of discrimination and war crimes against humanity.
Anti-Israeli Coalition is Operative
The Eastern Coalition against Israel described in an article I recently published is becoming operative, to the extent that this autumn brings a new strategic reality. The Iranian president visited Damascus in March 2010 and met with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General. During the last week of July 2010, there was an important encounter between King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and President Assad in Beirut. Now, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai said that following unmanned drone flights over Lebanon and Syria by Israel, Syria could respond immediately to any Israeli attack. The restraint shown by Syria after the IDF bombed a nuclear reactor in Syria in the fall of 2007 wouldn’t be repeated. This announcement is the result of the new level of operability achieved by the coalition.
Supporting this assessment is the fact that the Kremlin, announced in August 29 that it would sell the very accurate P-800 Yakhont missiles to Syria, despite protests from a very weak Netanyahu. That means Syria would be able to attack Israeli naval targets in the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, Al Rai recently informed also that Hezbollah and Syria have formed a joint headquarters meant to coordinate both armies. It would be commanded by an officer from each army. The cooperation includes trading information regarding strategic sites in Israel and full cooperation in land, sea, and air warfare, including the positioning of anti-aircraft missiles in both Lebanon and Syria. This last is aimed to block Israeli nuclear and air attacks. The new headquarters are a clear sign the coalition is now operative.
Israel recently lost its special relation with Turkey, following the Gaza’s Freedom Flotilla events. From now, Israeli warplanes cannot use Turkey’s airspace to strike Syria from the north. Currently, Israel talks just about blocking “Tie-Up Breaking” weapons – namely, not allowing the Hezbollah to possess effective anti-aircraft defenses. Until then, Israel claims the opposing forces are roughly equal. Yet, this reality can be changed very quickly. Hezbollah soldiers have been trained on the use of missiles, even if they do not have them yet. In an emergency, those could be quickly supplied and the Israeli Air Force blocked during the process.
Proud Zionists would point out at this point that this is impossible. The IDF Air Force would block such an attempt with powerful American aircrafts in less time that it took me to type this sentence. Yet, reality is simple and disagrees with such a claim. Both Syria and Hezbollah can render the IDF runways unusable by bombing them, creating a new strategic reality within hours. Both are capable of deep attacks within Israel. Hezbollah proved that as recently as in 2006. There aren’t many alternatives open for the IDF. It could use civilian runways, but these would be targeted as well. Another option is the use of highways within Israel as runways. There are such plans (alternative runways are marked with oddly placed X-ing marks on Israeli highways – deceiving signs classify them as “road-color experiments”); yet, this is such an equally fragile alternative.
To complete the assessment, Iranian ISNA news agency quoted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying that Lebanon’s resistance groups, along with Iran, must stand together to thwart foreign aggressors, claiming that such an alliance would work against the enemies of humanity. Dear Bibi, the writing is on the wall in bold letters. Read and worry, because there is nothing else you can do. Your terror won’t win.
Aug 31, 2010 | Harassment Agent
This man photographed me in my way to publish this article; I bypassed him, turned back and took a quick photograph of him. I face this every day, among other types of harassment attacks. He is part of the harassment group under Israeli payroll. Can you identify him? If so, please provide his identity so I can place a formal complaint.
To the Iranian authorities: this is to let you know that the Bolivian guards and a Bolivian key worker at your embassy in La Paz (V. V. are her initials) take turns in blocking my access to you. My request to get political asylum at your country is still valid.
Defeating Israel, Chemical Disaster, and On Ha-Yarkon Street and Black Sheep deal with the basic plan of an international army sent by the UN to stop the actions of the regime recently defined as terrorist.
The Day After Israel deals with the aftermath of such an action.
Suzerain of Syria reports on the IDF recognition of its own weakness.
Israel 2040 explores the possibility of the Israeli society collapsing from within.
On Zim and Gadot explains why Dimona is a secondary site and expands on truly strategic lifelines of Israel. In this aspect, the eighth article of the series is a direct continuation, describing Hamovil Haartzi.
The Unholy Grail describes some interesting options for a better future, while Fuel Embargo on Israel explores the chances of imposing a fuel embargo on Israel to force it to desist from international terrorism.
Merry Fortnight: On the IDF Strength explores for how long can the IDF stand a coordinated conventional international army sent to impose justice.